The economic impact of climate change on agriculture in cameroon1 ernest l molua and cornelius m lambi2 1 an earlier version of this working paper was published as ceepa discussion paper number 17. Climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation iva researchers addressing climate change iva have studied issues related to food security using several approaches. Climate change is hitting african farmers the hardest of all. The intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc has. Africas agricultural producers to adapt to climate change andor mitigate its effects. Understanding interrelations and interactions in the agricultural sector and. Climatesmart agriculture pdf 957kb technology pdf 864kb. For maize and beans, two key staple crops in africa, areas of suitability could decline by 2040 % relative. Africas food production systems are currently among the worlds most vulnerable. Climate change and variability in subsaharan africa.
However, they may be arguably too general to understand the magnitude of impact and to. Six out of ten people rely on agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate change, the periodic modification of earths climate caused by changes in the atmosphere and interactions between the atmosphere and various other geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic factors. The production of crops and livestock other than pigs in subsaharan africa is typically located in semiarid regions barrios et al. Climate change is now becoming a serious constraint. Climate is the primary important factor for agricultural production, and any significant change in climate on a global scale is likely to impact on local agriculture. Projected impacts of climate change on african agriculture in the absence of effective adaptation measures, african crop production will likely be reduced by climate change, mostly as a result of increased regional temperatures. It was developed as a background document for the eighth informal nordicafrican foreign ministers meeting copenhagen, 1112 march 2009. We use a balanced panel household data set collected in 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010 from eight agroregional zones and climate data from 1980 to 2010. One such challenge is the mismatch between the data available and the data required to design effectivepolicies, particularly at the regional, national, and subnaclimate change and agriculture in africa. Climate change and agricultural production in south africa.
I recommend it to students, researchers and practitioners working on climate change issues. The following short papers summarise farm africas approach to. One common research strategy is to predict the impacts of climate change on food production based on climate sce. For south africa to adapt to the adverse consequences of global climate change, it would require yield improvements of more than 20 percent over baseline investments in agricultural research and development. Climate change impacts and adaptation in south africa. Climate change and food security food and agriculture.
Exploring the impact of climate change on children in. Advocacy to secure financing for projects of agricultural adaptation in african countries. The paper is organized into 5 sections and begins with a brief description of agriculture in the prairies, establishing the biophysical and socioeconomic context. There are prolonged and intensified droughts in eastern africa. This is evident from current experiences of extreme climatic events such as. Results indicate that farmers are aware that limpopo province is getting warmer and drier with increased frequency of droughts, changes in the timing of rains, observed trends of temperature and precipitation. It was developed as a background document for the eighth informal nordicafrican foreign. Agriculture has always been deeply dependent on the weather, with farmers needing a steady mixture of sun, warmth, and rains in order to reliably produce the food that all of humanity depends on for survival. Pdf impact of climate change on agriculture in africa by.
Food and agriculture organization fao, 2004, the number of african food. Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in subsaharan. One common research strategy is to predict the impacts of. We work with them to plan for the long term, especially for climate shocks, like flooding or drought. Subsaharan africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. A comprehensive analysis examines the food security threats facing 11 of the countries that make up west africa benin, burkina faso, cote divoire, ghana, guinea, liberia, niger, nigeria, senegal, sierra leone, and togo and explores how climate change will increase the. Agriculture is considered as the largest main economic activities in africa and it. Agriculture has not figured very prominently in the climate discussion so far. Now, these once predictable growing cycles are at risk from climate change, and smallholders like upendo are on the front lines. Without extensive adaptation the effects of climate change on agriculture is expected to exacerbate africas deepening food crisis, narrowing channels of food. Climate change is an additional challenge to effective farming in africa. The challenge of providing food security for a rapidly growing population must be met, and in doing so the role of smallholders both as contributors to climate change and as victims of it has to be. The impacts of climate change on agriculture and other key economic sectors in the food production and supply.
Much of african agricultures vulnerability to climate change lies in the fact that its. The initiative for the adaptation of african agriculture to climate change aaa responds to the needs expressed by african countries. Climatesmart agriculture csa is an integrated approach to managing landscapescropland, livestock, forests and fisheriesthat address the interlinked challenges of food security and climate change. Pdf how can african agriculture adapt to climate change. The increasing occurrence of flooding and drought is also another predicted problem for africa. In africa, much work has gone into downscaling global climate models to understand regional impacts, but there remains a dearth of local level understanding of impacts and communities capacity to adapt.
Effects of climate variability and change on agricultural. Agriculture prominent in guides to countrylevel action 12 4. Agriculture continues to be the mainstay of the kenyan economy with an estimated gross domestic product gdp share of 25. Global warming affects agriculture in a number of ways, including through changes in average temperatures, rainfall, and climate extremes e. Climate change and ag california department of food and. What climate change means for agriculture in africa one. Agriculture and climate change food and agriculture organization. Climate change, which is largely a result of burning fossil fuels, is already affecting the earths temperature. Gender and climate change africa gender, climate change and food security 2 policy brief 4 agriculture is central to the livelihoods of women it is now widely acknowledged that climate change impacts will not be genderneutral.
A comprehensive analysis examines the food security threats facing 10 of the countries that make up east and central africa burundi, democratic republic of congo, eritrea, kenya, madagascar, rwanda, sudan, tanzania, and uganda and explores how climate change will increase the. Statistics was used to determine climate variability and change impact on agricultural production. Pdf toward climatesmart agriculture in west africa. Climate change impacts on agriculture across africa www0. Full technical report on the implications of climate change. Climate change can set back development of nations. The economic impact of climate change on agriculture in. The second of three books in ifpris climate change in africa series, east african agriculture and climate change. Chapter 11 climate change department of environmental. Climate change could be particularly damaging to countries in africa, being. The economic impact of climate change on agriculture in cameroon. This paper was funded by the gef and the world bank. It is one of a series of 21 synthesis and assessment products being produced under the auspices of the u.
Confidence in the projected impacts of climate change on agricultural systems has increased substantially since the first intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc reports. This is a well researched, thorough and impressive work on climate change and agriculture in africa. Climate change impacts on agriculture across africa oxford. Summary of climate change impacts on agriculture 21 6. Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place on a global scale. Resilient adaptation to climate change in african agriculture. Dec 12, 2014 impacts of climate change on agriculture and other food systems increases rates of malnutrition and contributes to poverty with one in four people still undernourished in subsaharan africa, climate change impacts make it even more difficult for governments across the region to improve food security and help reduce tensions. Climate change and adaptation in african agriculture 4 local climate change adaptation platforms have been proposed by a number of development agencies, as a means of promoting collaboration between scientists and practitioners, and enhancing local adaptation capacity including the ability to draw on climate data. Dec 31, 2010 subsaharan africa has been portrayed as the most vulnerable region to the impacts of global climate change because of its reliance on agriculture which is highly sensitive to weather and climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and light and extreme events and low capacity for adaptation. Climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics. Resulting changes in regional water endowments and soil moisture will affect the productivity of cropland, leading to changes in food production and international trade patterns.
Already experiencing temperature increases of approximately 0. Africa agriculture status report 2014 climate investment funds. Farmers organizations from subsaharan africa and latin america. Climate change science program ccsp, which coordinates the climate change research activities of u. Agricultural production in subsaharan africa is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with rainfed agriculture accounting for approximately 96. Pdf this is a well researched, thorough and impressive work on climate change and agriculture in africa. Exploring the impact of climate change on children in south. Climate change, land degradation and desertification are expected to affect african countries. Promotion of innovative solutions to respond to africas top priority needs. The implications of climate change on water supply, and thus on the other key sectors is simulated, together with the demand for water from other sectors as affected by climate change. Climate change has significantly affected global agriculture in the 21st century and the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc assessment report indicates. How climate change affects agriculture african economies are heavily dependent on agriculture. Climate impacts on agriculture and food supply climate. According to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, warming in subsaharan africa ssa is expected to be greater than the global average, and rainfall will decline in certain areas.
In botswana, for example, pastoral agriculture represents the chief. Production is struggling to keep up as crop yields level. United nations fact sheet on climate change africa is. South africa is likely to experience higher temperatures and less rainfall as a result of climate change. Full technical report on the implications of climate. The effects of climate change on agriculture, land.
A doubling of irrigation development, on the other hand, will not be sufficient to reverse adverse impacts from climate change in the country. Internationally, these effects of climate change on agriculture and food supply are likely to be similar to those seen in the united states. The most pessimistic forecast about the impact of climate change suggests that africa may lose 47% of agricultural revenue by 2100, while the most optimistic predicts a loss of only 6%. Jun 12, 2007 impact of climate change on agriculture in africa by 2030 article pdf available in scientific research and essays vol. Climate change and security in africa 1 acknowledgements this deskbased report was produced with the financial support of the danish ministry of foreign affairs. Agriculture and climate change are inextricably linkedcrop yield, biodiversity, and water use, as well as soil health are directly affected by a changing climate. Impact of climate change on primary agriculture, water. As this paper illustrates, climate change in africa is not only a conservation problem but is a socioeconomic issue that must be dealt with at a global scale.
Africa is the continent most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Since the 2006 saeo, local and global research has advanced its understanding of the projected impacts of climate change. Pdf impact of climate change on agriculture in africa by 2030. Climate change is projected to compromise agricultural pro duction, especially in smallholder systems with little adaptive. The impacts of climate change on agriculture and other key economic sectors in the food production and supply chain, such as forestry and energy, threaten food security. Mark new,2 emma archer van garderen,3 guy midgley,4 anna taylor,5 ralph hamann,6 sabine stuarthill,7. The perception of and adaptation to climate change in africa1 david maddison2 1 an earlier version of this working paper was published as ceepa discussion paper number 10. Climate change impacts in subsaharan africa climate analytics. However, other stressors such as population growth may magnify the effects of climate change on food security. Increased temperatures, especially in the number of extreme hot days, as well as changes in precipitation, are the main climatic variables affecting agriculture on the african continent. Climate change and adaptation in african agriculture 4 local climate change adaptation platforms have been proposed by a number of development agencies, as a means of promoting collaboration between scientists and practitioners, and enhancing local adaptation capacity including the. We estimate the effects of climate variability and change on agricultural revenues of smallscale farmers in kenya. One of the most important projects to mitigate climate change with agriculture and adapting agriculture to climate change at the same time, was launched in 2019 by the global evergreening alliance.
Despite climate change, africa can feed africa africa. This is evident from current experiences of extreme climatic events such as droughts and floods. This study very clearly indicates that the sector deserves more attention when it comes to both climate change threats and opportunities. Climate change impacts on agriculture across africa. A common vision of sustainable food and agriculture 15 5. Impacts and adaptation options, centre for environmental economics and policy in africa ceepa, discussion paper no 21, university of pretoria, pretoria, south africa. Climate change, food security, and livelihoods in sub.
Climate change and agriculture climate scientists project that over the next several decades the accumulation of greenhouse gases will continue to raise temperatures and change established precipitation patterns across the world. South africas response to climate change was presented. Agriculture and climate change challenges and opportunities at the global and local. Wires climate change climate change impacts in south africa a climate change. In past analyses of effects of climate change on the south african ecosystems e. As a first step to address this need, the purpose of this paper is to present a brief overview of the literature on agriculture and climate change impacts and adaptation in the prairies. Many projections of the impact of climate change on the crop, livestock and fishery production sectors of african agriculture are reported in the literature. Climate change has a significant impact on agricultural systems as it affects both plant and animal health.
The first of three books in ifpris climate change in africa series, west african agriculture and climate change. This approach engages directly with the agriculture sector due to its generally high dependence on water. The challenge in africa climate projections for africa ipcc 2007 include a likely average temperature increase of 1. Overview climate change impacts and adaptation in south africa gina ziervogel,1. The impacts of climate change on agriculture and other key economic sectors in the food production and supply chain, such as forestry and energy, threaten. The perception of and adaptation to climate change in africa. The challenge of providing food security for a rapidly growing population must be met, and in doing so the role of smallholders both as contributors to climate change and as victims of it has to be addressed. Developing countries are estimated to account for three fourths of global technical potential, with asia accounting for 40 percent, africa 18 percent, and latin. Impact of climate change on agriculture in africa by 2030 article pdf available in scientific research and essays vol.